Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 84474.322562 89135.092110 93791.750582 98790.098136 103999.959742 109266.838029 114990.414081
2024-12-15 77486.818276 84678.371337 92061.283068 100196.730001 108899.210080 117918.588505 127962.363724
2024-12-22 71346.259523 80187.449572 89462.097570 99895.381132 111283.207775 123313.747020 136961.991431
2024-12-29 67862.297900 78063.386347 88956.534240 101418.599229 115244.236258 130075.713454 147151.735708
2025-01-05 64674.910660 75938.011021 88154.660902 102337.653875 118295.989213 135642.243770 155866.838384
2025-01-12 61432.856295 73502.876246 86783.315424 102408.471067 120214.667367 139799.383103 162891.779136
2025-01-19 58458.573197 71180.586517 85365.151741 102260.436394 121739.616314 143395.837622 169191.637848
2025-01-26 57008.829603 70504.892085 85730.191193 104062.456054 125415.088313 149377.399145 178172.807032
2025-02-02 55698.393166 69899.708874 86097.782076 105799.040333 128964.273126 155186.256526 186953.391806
2025-02-09 53982.269250 68721.914738 85715.132245 106586.606184 131352.796306 159620.611422 194132.692438
2025-02-16 51906.831069 67021.206738 84631.569364 106469.604879 132614.758479 162698.368600 199704.255383
2025-02-23 50334.545974 65860.756790 84130.980445 106990.966723 134587.100063 166578.174046 206203.717002
2025-03-02 48541.189104 64392.252546 83235.947104 107030.808780 135999.244265 169837.041013 212044.965847
2025-03-09 47522.457148 63845.168040 83432.656042 108375.686108 138977.079181 174969.937539 220152.291397
2025-03-16 45720.793120 62251.060634 82284.438972 108020.876677 139850.578393 177557.529245 225204.100083
2025-03-23 44990.780402 61980.099356 82748.599972 109635.070578 143120.148322 183035.076018 233758.850525
2025-03-30 44006.615918 61343.896920 82722.387928 110611.692381 145588.117037 187538.336934 241148.954747
2025-04-06 42661.303220 60194.195115 82007.000540 110686.704140 146909.776062 190627.414016 246815.085543
2025-04-13 41283.098550 58956.030228 81137.766950 110529.061218 147910.222067 193302.759296 251968.169458
2025-04-20 40896.969702 59005.954975 81905.511837 112446.865499 151519.038962 199209.560939 261132.284952
2025-04-27 40504.304458 59028.173855 82623.955834 114294.659630 155042.695415 205026.806080 270219.744210
2025-05-04 39704.035862 58476.491515 82573.178266 115132.539699 157273.616700 209235.258561 277324.677645
2025-05-11 38540.941334 57399.464450 81802.922012 115008.068131 158252.716692 211864.044784 282457.099195